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हिन्दी 
IN JAPANESE POLITICS, the fifth time’s the charm. At least that is the case for Ishiba Shigeru, a maverick from Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). He defeated eight colleagues to win his fifth bid for party leadership on September 27th. This means he will become Japan’s prime minister when he is sworn in next week. Mr Ishiba had come second to Takaichi Sanae, a hard-right nationalist, in a first round of voting. But he eked out victory in a second-round run-off, as lawmakers who opposed Ms Takaichi consolidated behind him. After the result was declared, he promised to be a leader who would “speak the truth with courage and sincerity”.
The LDP’s leadership contest was unusually chaotic. Kishida Fumio, the departing prime minister, decided last month to stand down and not to run for re-election. Approval of his administration has been wallowing beneath 30%. A recent scandal over the misuse of political funds left many in the LDP worried that the party would lose a big chunk of seats in the next general elections. It also weakened the grip of the party’s entrenched factions, which traditionally influence votes for the leadership. The field of nine was the largest since the LDP introduced its current rules for party elections some 50 years ago. Until the final moment it was unclear who would win.
Mr Ishiba was consistently the most popular politician in polls of the general public. The son of a long-serving LDP politician from Tottori, a rural region in western Japan, Mr Ishiba is a throwback to an older style of Japanese politics. He is a disciple of Tanaka Kakuei, a powerful post-war LDP leader who championed the country’s poorer regions, before being felled by a corruption scandal in the 1970s. A self-proclaimed defence otaku (obsessive), Mr Ishiba is a former defence minister and an avid collector of model planes and warships. He has populist flair, of a distinctly Japanese kind, boasting of his enthusiasm for trains and ramen, two national obsessions, and posing in the costume of Majin Buu, a character from Dragon Ball, a popular manga series.
Like his mentors, Mr Ishiba has positioned himself as a champion of Japan’s forgotten prefectures. Also formerly minister of regional revitalisation and minister of agriculture, he promises an economic agenda focused on helping corners of Japan that are most affected by its ageing demographics. He has also promised to create a disaster-prevention ministry, to better prepare for earthquakes and the like. On social issues he has shown a liberal streak: he has declared support for giving married couples the legal right to keep separate surnames—an issue that has become a proxy for broader battles over sexism and family life.
He supports strengthening Japan’s armed forces, but also emphasises the importance of diplomacy with China. And he is known to be stubbornly contrarian. During the campaign he suggested creating a collective regional security system, akin to an Asian NATO (that idea drew a swift rebuke from American officials). He has also called for revising the agreement that governs how American military forces operate in Japan, in order to reduce what he sees as imbalances in the relationship.
During his past bids for the leadership Mr Ishiba repeatedly failed to attract enough support from parliamentarians, despite being popular amongst the party’s rank-and-file. He left the LDP briefly in the 1990s, earning a reputation as a traitor. After returning, he became a gadfly, emerging as an internal critic of the long-serving former prime minister Abe Shinzo. His victory owes much to the unease that many LDP lawmakers felt about Ms Takaichi, Abe’s ideological heir. Mr Ishiba’s surprise victory has echoes of another of his political heroes, Ishibashi Tanzan, a leading Japanese post-war liberal who won a shocking victory over Abe’s grandfather, Kishi Nobusuke, to become prime minister in 1956. But Ishibashi lasted only two months in office, before being forced to resign due to illness.
Mr Ishiba does not have a strong support base within the party. So he may struggle to last long himself. The first big test will come when he leads the party in general elections. Though the lower house’s term does not expire until next October, the LDP may dissolve the Diet and call for snap elections sooner. That would allow the party to capitalise on its new leader’s honeymoon period with voters. And victory would provide a public mandate for his policies.
A swift election would also limit how much time Japan’s embattled opposition has to prepare. Noda Yoshihiko, a former prime minister who this week was elected as head of the main opposition party, will try to tack to the centre to peel off voters frustrated with the LDP. But before then, Mr Ishiba must form a cabinet and assume his new position. On October 1st Japan’s parliament will gather to officially, finally, name him prime minister.
